PO038

IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

Gregor Giebel 1, Joel Cline2, Helmut Frank3, Will Shaw4, Pierre Pinson5, Jakob Messner5, Bri-Mathias Hodge6, George Kariniotakis7, Caroline Draxl6, Corinna Möhrlen8
1DTU Wind Energy, Risø, Denmark, 2Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA, 3Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 4Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richmond, WA, USA, 5DTU Elektro, Lyngby, Denmark, 6National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO, USA, 7Mines ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis, France, 8WEPROG, Assens, Denmark

Abstract

Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, ...) and operational forecaster and forecast users.

Method

The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions.

Results

Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts, and one or more benchmark studies implemented on the Windbench platform hosted at CENER. Additionally, spreading of relevant information in both the forecasters and the users community is paramount.
The poster also shows the work done in the first half of the Task, e.g. the collection of available datasets, the current benchmarks, a mapping of the use of probabilistic forecasts at end users, and some ideas towards the optimal communication of probabilistic forecasts.

Conclusions

A new IEA Task on Wind Power Forecasting is presented, opening a forum for international collaboration in this important field for meteorologists, wind power forecasters and end users. For collaboration, please contact the author (grgi@dtu.dk).

Objectives

A new international collaboration forum for information exchange on wind power forecasting exists
Recommended Practices on industry benchmarks and on probabilistic forecast evaluation are underway

Participation is invited for all interested parties